THE IMPACT OF POPULATION CHANGE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN KENYA | OMICS International
Kenya's population will increase from the present million to million in the its campaign to increase awareness of the relationship between population The project then trains health clinic staff, and programs are designed to carry. We work with the Government of Kenya to build a strong health Here's How Kenya is Working to Break the Link Between HIV and Addiction. Population, Health and Environment ('PHE') is an approach to human development that There is a deep relationship between population, health and environment. Successful Communities from Ridge to Reef, Kenya: This project was.
The existing literature also points out that depending on the country; population growth may contribute, deter or even have no impact on economic growth. This result is explained by the fact that the effects of population growth change over-time. For example, a higher fertility rate can have a short-term negative effect caused by the cost of expenditures on children whereas it has a long-run positive effect through the larger labour force it generates.
Due to this divergent views among scholars on whether its population growth that drives economic growth or vise versa, the following research questions emerged: What is the causal relationship between population growth and economic growth in Kenya? Is the relationship a short term or a long run phenomenon? What is the response of population growth due to shocks in economic growth? What is the response of economic growth due to shocks in Population growth?
What are the sources of variations of economic growth? What are the policy implications of the study findings? To determine the causal relationship between population growth and economic growth in Kenya ii.
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To determine if the relationship between population growth and Economic growth in Kenya is a short-term or a long run phenomena. To determine the response of population growth due to shocks on economic growth in Kenya.
To determine the response of the economic growth due to shocks in population growth. To examine the sources of variations of economic growth. Draw policy implications from the study. And with continued divergence of opinions regarding the consequences of population growth on economic development, this study will thus serve as a necessary contribution to knowledge offering information regarding the same in Kenya.
The study will also serve as a resource material to policy makers and scholars by providing the relevant information regarding the issue. Secondly, it provides information on the impact of population growth and how these growths influence the economic development.
The results of this study will be helpful to the policy makers by giving them useful information on various explanatory variables that may be targeted in the evaluation of policy changes and the provisions of new policies in order to enhance the desired level of economic growth.
Health, Population and Nutrition
The study may help to provide useful information to the private and the public agencies in designing projects and programmes that can assist in bringing a balance between growth in population and growth in economic growth. Given the big scope on the topic of population, the research is narrowed down only to the study of population growth.
This has left out the other dimensions of population which include population density and size structure, and also population aging. Thus there is room for further research on the effect of these other dimensions of population on economic development.Population, Health, and Environment Working Together: A PRB ENGAGE Presentation
Whereas population grows at a geometric rate, the production capacity only grows arithmetically. Therefore in the absence of consistent checks on population growth, Malthus made the prediction that in a short period of time, scarce resources will have to be shared among an increasing number of individuals.
However, such checks that ease the pressure of population explosion do exist, and Malthus distinguished between two categories, the preventive check and the positive one. The preventive check consists of voluntary limitations of population growth. Individuals before getting married and building a family, make rational decisions based on the income they expect to earn and the quality of life they anticipate to maintain in the future for themselves and their families. The positive check to population is a direct consequence of the lack of a preventive check.
When society does not limit population growth voluntarily, diseases, famines and wars reduce population size and establish the necessary balance with resources. Boserup found out that population growth is an autonomous factor, which affects agricultural productivity rather than being affected by it, as suggested by the Malthusian school. The study claimed that Malthus' assumption of diminishing returns to labor needs not hold in the long run, as higher population may lead to a more efficient division of labor as well as to improved agricultural practices signaled by the frequency of cropping.
The study concluded that soil fertility should not be viewed as fixed and given by nature, but instead can be improved by substituting the agricultural technology to a better one, which is likely to be a result of an increase in population.
Primitive communities with higher population growth rates are more likely to experience economic development, provided that the necessary investment in agriculture in undertaken. Thirlwal investigated the relationship between population growth and economic development with special reference to developing economies.
The study found out that the relationship between population growth and economic development is a complex one, particularly concerning what the cause is and what the effect is.
Rapid population growth lowers per capita income growth in least developed countries LDCsyet there are many ways in which population growth may be a stimulus to progress, and there are many rational reasons why families in developing countries choose to have many children.
The study concluded that complexity of the subject is compounded by the fact that, economic development is a multidimensional concept.
The pace of economic development depends on the diversion of resources from consumption to uses that raise future output. A population with a high ratio of dependents on producers consumes more of a given output and devotes less to investments. Thus, high fertility, which produces a high level of dependency, promotes consumption at the expense of investment.
Simon investigated the long run benefits of population growth. Whereas population growth has a negative effect on living standards in the short run due to diminishing returns and the temporary burden it poses on society, it has positive effects on living standards in the long run due to knowledge advances and economies of scale.
Employing a simulation model, the study found out that in the long run after 30 to years and when compared to constant-size population, moderate population growth improves standards of livings both in more developed and in less developed countries. In the long run, a growing population tends to advance knowledge, which, in turn, increases productivity and output at a higher rate than that of population growth. Nevertheless, a country's optimal policy regarding population growth depends on the weight given to future periods relative to the present.
The more weight a country gives to future generations and the more willing a country is for the short run decline in standards of livings, the better it is for that country to pursue a policy of moderate population growth.
The long run benefits of population growth that links to economic development of poor countries are on the positive balance, contrary to conventional wisdom.
Porter employed a Solow-Swan economic growth model with exogenous saving rates to determine the relationship between population growth and economic growth. The model assumed that both the saving rate and the consumption rate are given. Taking a household owns the input and manages the technology. The growth rate of population is exogenous. The model further assumes that this growth rate is a constant n and that labour supply per person is given.
Defining a steady state as a situation in which the quantities, such as capital, population, and output, grow at constant rates. In the Solow-Swan model a steady state exists if the net increase in per capita capital is equal to zero.
Denoting steady state values with an asterisk the steady state values are given by: Since the per capita values are constant in steady state the levels of total output, total consumption, and total capital must grow at the same rate, which is the same as that of population growth n.
An increase in the rate of population growth in steady state does not affect the growth rate of the per capita variables, since these rates are equal to zero in steady state. However, an increase in fertility does lead to a decrease in the level of capital per capita and therefore to a decrease in output and consumption per capita. This is the capital dilution effect.
THE IMPACT OF POPULATION CHANGE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN KENYA
An increase in the population growth rate leads to a decline in the growth rate of the per capita variables. For model with exogenous saving rates higher population growth leads to lower standard of living per capita measured either as consumption or in growth of consumption.
The utility of the offspring depends, in turn, on their own consumption and the utility of their offspring. Through this inter-linking chain the current generation consumes and transfers resources to its children influenced by its concern not only for its own children but for all future generations.
An important implication of this model is that familial transfers will neutralize fiscal policy. When a government exercises expansionary fiscal policy it stimulates the economy by increasing current spending financed by issuing debt. From the perspective of intergenerational transfers, the policy is an effort to stimulate spending by transferring resources to current generations from future generations. According to this model however, the public policy is undone by altruistic households.
They compensate future generations by increasing their saving and accumulating wealth, exactly offsetting the increase in public debt. This model implies that public intergenerational transfers and private intergenerational transfers are perfect substitutes. A change in public transfers is matched dollar for dollar by a compensating change in private transfers.
In particular, they identified two distinct mechanisms through which population growth affects labor supply and employment. One is the "accounting" aspect that refers to changes in the demographic structure and cohort size.
- What's up in Kenya? (Besides population).
- Population growth and development: the Kenyan experience.
- Population, health, and the environment
The other is the "behavioral" aspect that refers to the decision to participate in the labor force, particularly for women. Fertility, mortality and migration will affect labor supply differently.
This can be damaging to ecosystems and the biodiversity in these rural areas. Their surrounding ecosystem provides them with goods and services such as water, food, medicine, fuel wood, building materials, and other resources.
Damage or disruption of these natural goods and services can have severe consequences for human health. Projects that take the PHE approach work to create healthier communities and ecosystems.
These projects aim to bring better health services to remote communities to improve participation in conservation efforts. PHE projects also promote family planning services to help slow population growth that can put pressure on natural resources.
That means PHE approaches strive to simultaneously improve access to health services while helping communities manage their natural resources in ways that improve their health and livelihood even as they protect the environment. Beyond this, the PHE approach also targets synergies between human health and ecosystem health by including a wide spectrum of development and conservation targets such as the sustainable management of natural resources, improving livelihoods, food security and nutrition, and by maintaining or restoring habitats and ecosystem functions.
By focusing on the synergy between communities and their environment, the PHE approach conserves biodiversity while at the same time improving environmental health conditions for the local people. PHE is effective at achieving a wide range of positive results over multiple sectors. History of PHE[ edit ] In the late s conservation organizations and practitioners began to realize the benefits of improving the quality of life for people by managing biodiversity and natural resources.
These projects were initially called integrated conservation and development projects ICDP and addressed a wide variety of community development needs.
At the end of the s it was realized that ICDPs were not achieving conservation or development goals as successfully as anticipated. Preventing Maternal and Child Deaths In partnership with the Government of Kenya, we work at the national and county levels to address and combat the main causes of maternal and child deaths.
Activities focus on the continuum of care, including antenatal care; skilled birth attendance; essential newborn care; and post-partum care. Both community and facility initiatives are used to support increasing the uptake of these interventions.
We promote uptake of vitamin A, oral rehydration salts and zinc; immunizations; and prevention and management of diarrhea through household hygiene and sanitation promotion as well as water quality interventions. Our work promotes good nutritional practices, including exclusive breast feeding, community management of acute malnutrition and inpatient therapeutic management of severe malnutrition.
USAID has supported voluntary family planning in Kenya for over 30 years, prioritizing the increase of quality, access, and utilization of services. Our programs both increase access to contraceptives to those that seek them and strengthen the supervision and skills of family planning providers.